英语翻译The most distinct property of electricity is its volatility.Volatility is the measure of change in the price of electricity over a given period of time.It is often expressed as a percentage and computed as the annualized standard deviatio

英语翻译The most distinct property of electricity is its volatility.Volatility is the measure of change in the price of electricity over a given period of time.It is often expressed as a percentage and computed as the annualized standard deviatio
英语翻译
The most distinct property of electricity is its volatility.Volatility is the measure of change in the price of electricity over a given period of time.It is often expressed as a percentage and computed as the annualized standard deviation of percentage change in the daily price (other prices such as weekly or monthly prices can also be used),Compared with load,the price of electricity in a restructured power market is much more volatile.From the curves,we learn that the load curve is relatively homogeneous and its variations are cyclic and the price curve is nonhomogeneous and its variations show a little cyclic property.Although electricity price is very volatile,it is not regarded as random.Hence,it is possible to identify certain patterns and rules pertaining to market volatility.For example,transmission congestion usually incurs a price spike which is not sustained as electricity price would revert to a more reasonable level (this is known as mean reversion in statistics).It is conceivable to use
historical prices to forecast electricity prices.Accordingly,we use a training scheme to capture perceived patterns for forecasting electricity prices.
The fundamental reason for electricity price spike is that the supply and demand must be matched on a second-by-second basis.Other reasons follow:
\2 Volatility in fuel price
\2 Load uncertainty
\2 Fluctuations in hydroelectricity production
\2 Generation uncertainty (outages)
\2 Transmission congestion
\2 Behavior of market participant (based on anticipated price)
\2 Market manipulation (market power,counterparty risk)
Because of the special properties of electricity,the price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other relatively volatile commodities.The annualized volatility of oil future contracts is around 30%; it is around 50% for natural gas future contracts,while about 60% for electricity future contracts.In electricity spot markets,annualized volatility is above 200%.Because of the significant volatility,it is difficult to make an accurate forecast for the spot market of electricity.This is evidenced by the fact that the existing price forecasting accuracy is far lower than that of load forecasting.However,price forecasting accuracy is not as stringent as that of load forecasting

英语翻译The most distinct property of electricity is its volatility.Volatility is the measure of change in the price of electricity over a given period of time.It is often expressed as a percentage and computed as the annualized standard deviatio
最明显的是其波动性电性质.波动率是衡量的改变在电价在给定的时间周期内.这是常以百分数表示和计算作为是以年度标准差表示,数据的变化百分率的每日价格(其他的价格,例如每周或每月的价格也会被使用),相比之下,负荷,电价在重组电力市场更加不稳定.从曲线,我们得知负荷曲线是相对均匀的,其变化是循环和价格,其变化曲线的非齐次显示出少许的循环的财产.尽管电价是挥发性的,它不是看作是随机的.因此,它有可能识别特定的模式和规则用于修饰或说明市场的波动性.例如,输电阻塞通常所受价格飙升,价格将持续的电力,又不回复一个比较合理的水平上(这就是所谓的均值回复统计中).这是可以想象的使用历史价格预测电力价格.因此,我们使用一个训练计划来捕捉知觉模式,为预测电力价格.
最根本的原因在于电价穗是供给和需求必须匹配在second-by-second基础.其他原因遵循:燃料价格的波动性,载荷的不确定性 波动的水电生产 一代不确定性(中断) 输电阻塞 市场参与者的行为(基于预期价格) 操纵市场行为(市场力量,交易对手风险)
因为其特殊的性能的电力,电价远比其他更不稳定的相对挥发性商品.未来的石油合同的年度波动率达到30%左右;它是天然气50%左右,而未来合同约60%为电未来合同.在电力现货市场、年度波动是以上200%.由于大波动,很难作出准确的预测了现货市场的电力.这是证明了的事实,现行的价格预测精度远远低于的负荷预测.然而,价格预测的准确性是不严格的负荷预测