英语翻译Current thinking is that Chinese markets will rally at a furious pace through the 2008 Summer Olympics -- and then investors should take the money and run.Don't bet your gold medal that strategy will work.By Jim Jubak I read something in

英语翻译Current thinking is that Chinese markets will rally at a furious pace through the 2008 Summer Olympics -- and then investors should take the money and run.Don't bet your gold medal that strategy will work.By Jim Jubak I read something in
英语翻译
Current thinking is that Chinese markets will rally at a furious pace through the 2008 Summer Olympics -- and then investors should take the money and run.Don't bet your gold medal that strategy will work.
By Jim Jubak
I read something in The Wall Street Journal last week that really scared me (besides the editorial page,I mean):"In Beijing,investors talk of a one-way bet on the market until at least next year's Olympics."
In other words,even though the Shanghai stock market is up 52% this year,was up 130% in 2006 and is up 305% since this rally began back in June 2005,and even though everyone knows this speculative bubble isn't sustainable,it's smart to keep pouring money into Chinese stocks -- no matter their price -- because the government won't intervene and risk crashing the market until after the showcase Beijing Olympics are over.
So invest as much as you can in anything you can until Aug.24,2008,the day the Beijing games come to an end.Then run -- don't walk -- in an orderly fashion to the exit.
Yeah,like that will work.
Watch out for stampede
Speculative markets that think they've got a green light to run from excess to excess until a specific date scare me.The possibility of a stampede for the exits on the Shanghai exchange starting a wave of fear that spreads around the globe scares me.And the very real possibility that the Beijing government will make a mistake and crash the Chinese stock market scares me.
Everything is not black,however.Because the Chinese stock market is,so far,only tenuously connected to the global financial market,any crash in Shanghai is likely to have only modest global effects.
With those cheery thoughts fresh in mind,let's take a look at why speculators in Shanghai think they've got a green light until August 2008.
Any explanation starts with China's massive 40% savings rate.There simply aren't very many places where the average Chinese can put that money.
Real estate has been a popular choice recently,but the government has cracked down on speculators in that sector.Most Chinese can't invest abroad.And banks don't pay much in interest.
The Chinese government recently raised the interest rate that a bank can pay on a one-year deposit to 3.06%,a jump of 0.27 percentage point from the prior rate.Inflation is China is running at about 3%,officially.And since bank interest is taxable,the return on a one-year bank deposit is actually negative.

英语翻译Current thinking is that Chinese markets will rally at a furious pace through the 2008 Summer Olympics -- and then investors should take the money and run.Don't bet your gold medal that strategy will work.By Jim Jubak I read something in
目前的想法是,中国市场将集会上愤怒的步伐通过2008年夏季奥林匹克运动会-然后,投资者应采取的金钱和运行.不要赌你的金牌将这一战略的工作.
美国之音记者邱巴克
我读到的东西华尔街日报上周,我真的害怕（除了社论版,我的意思） ：“在北京,投资者谈论的一个单向押注市场上,至少到明年的奥运会.”
换句话说,即使上海股市上涨52 ％ ,今年上涨了130 ％ ,2006年达305 ％ ,因为这集会始于2005年6月,尽管人人都知道这个投机泡沫是不可持续的,它的智能,以保持资金投入中国股市-不管他们的价格-因为政府不会干预和风险的市场崩溃之后才展示北京奥运会已经结束.
因此,投资多,您可以在任何您可以到2008年8月24号,这一天北京奥运会结束.然后运行-不要走-有秩序地撤离.
是啊,这样的工作.
警惕踩踏
投机市场,认为他们有一个绿灯从过剩过剩,直到某一特定日期吓唬我.的可能性踩踏的出口在上海开始交换波担心,传播世界各地的吓跑了我.和非常现实的可能性,北京政府将尽一个错误和崩溃的中国股市吓跑了我.
一切都没有黑,但是.由于中国股市是,到目前为止,只有tenuously连接到全球金融市场,任何坠毁在上海很可能只有轻微的全球性影响.
有了这些新鲜活泼的思想铭记,让我们来看看为什么在上海投机者认为,他们有一个绿灯,直到2008年8月.
任何解释开始,中国的大规模40 ％的储蓄率.有没有简单很多地方的平均中国可以把这笔钱.
房地产已成为最近流行的选择,但政府打击投机者在该部门.大多数中国不能海外投资.和银行不支付利息多.
中国政府最近提高了利率,一间银行可以支付的一年期存款至3.06 ％ ,增长0.27个百分点从之前率.通货膨胀是中国正在运行在3 ％左右,正式.由于银行利息是应纳税的回报一年银行存款实际上是消极的.